There's a challenge to correctly predict the entire bracket of the USA basketball teams. This is (mostly) a game of chance. But I wondering how much is it a game of chance? If we know how often the basketball statistics can predict the correct outcome of a match, we can calculate what are the odds to get it correct. Here are my quick-I-just-got-up-this-morning calculations: - Statistics accuracy in predicting the winner: chance to win
- 100% accuracy: 1
- 90% accuracy: 1 / 763
- 80% accuracy: 1 / 1274473
- 70% accuracy: 1 / 5738831574
- 60% accuracy: 1 / 94726442140000
- 50% accuracy (all teams are equally good): 1 / 9223372036854775808
- n accuracy: n^63
So, how good are statistics in predicting the outcome of a match these days?
asked
Geoffrey De ... ♦ |

@lamclay's blog has some nice posts about this topic: https://punkrockor.wordpress.com/tag/march-madness/ For instance, GATech's LRMC team claims 70-80% accuracy for its model-based approach:
answered
fbahr ♦ |