There's a challenge to correctly predict the entire bracket of the USA basketball teams. This is (mostly) a game of chance. But I wondering how much is it a game of chance? If we know how often the basketball statistics can predict the correct outcome of a match, we can calculate what are the odds to get it correct. Here are my quick-I-just-got-up-this-morning calculations:
So, how good are statistics in predicting the outcome of a match these days? |
@lamclay's blog has some nice posts about this topic: https://punkrockor.wordpress.com/tag/march-madness/ For instance, GATech's LRMC team claims 70-80% accuracy for its model-based approach: |