How often are sport statistics right?

 3 There's a challenge to correctly predict the entire bracket of the USA basketball teams. This is (mostly) a game of chance. But I wondering how much is it a game of chance? If we know how often the basketball statistics can predict the correct outcome of a match, we can calculate what are the odds to get it correct. Here are my quick-I-just-got-up-this-morning calculations: Statistics accuracy in predicting the winner: chance to win 100% accuracy: 1 90% accuracy: 1 / 763 80% accuracy: 1 / 1274473 70% accuracy: 1 / 5738831574 60% accuracy: 1 / 94726442140000 50% accuracy (all teams are equally good): 1 / 9223372036854775808 n accuracy: n^63 So, how good are statistics in predicting the outcome of a match these days? asked 22 Jan '14, 03:56 Geoffrey De ... ♦ 3.6k●4●27●65 accept rate: 6%

 3 @lamclay's blog has some nice posts about this topic: https://punkrockor.wordpress.com/tag/march-madness/ For instance, GATech's LRMC team claims 70-80% accuracy for its model-based approach: answered 22 Jan '14, 12:24 fbahr ♦ 4.6k●7●17 accept rate: 13%
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