There's a challenge to correctly predict the entire bracket of the USA basketball teams. This is (mostly) a game of chance. But I wondering how much is it a game of chance?

If we know how often the basketball statistics can predict the correct outcome of a match, we can calculate what are the odds to get it correct. Here are my quick-I-just-got-up-this-morning calculations:

  • Statistics accuracy in predicting the winner: chance to win
  • 100% accuracy: 1
  • 90% accuracy: 1 / 763
  • 80% accuracy: 1 / 1274473
  • 70% accuracy: 1 / 5738831574
  • 60% accuracy: 1 / 94726442140000
  • 50% accuracy (all teams are equally good): 1 / 9223372036854775808
  • n accuracy: n^63

So, how good are statistics in predicting the outcome of a match these days?

asked 22 Jan '14, 03:56

Geoffrey%20De%20Smet's gravatar image

Geoffrey De ... ♦
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Asked: 22 Jan '14, 03:56

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Last updated: 23 Jan '14, 03:54

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